In defiance of repeated warnings from the Biden administration, the Ukrainian army is ramping up kamikaze drone assaults on the Russian power complicated, a transfer to hamper the nation’s crude oil and crude product export revenues and curtail Moscow’s skill to fund President Putin’s ‘particular operation’ in Ukraine.
The newest suicide drone assault struck early Sunday at Lukoil PJSC’s giant oil refinery in Volgograd, deep inside the nation and a whole lot of miles east of the Ukrainian border, in line with Bloomberg.
“Throughout the evening of Might 12, the air protection and digital warfare forces fought off a drone on the territory of the Volgograd area,” Governor Andrey Bocharov wrote on Telegram.
Unverified claims on X, one from OSINTtechnical mentioned, “In a single day, Ukrainian forces efficiently struck the Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, Russia. Not less than one drone hit the complicated, reportedly setting the ELOU AVT-1 refining unit ablaze.”
In a single day, Ukrainian forces efficiently struck the Lukoil refinery in Volgograd, Russia.
Not less than one drone hit the complicated, reportedly setting the ELOU AVT-1 refining unit ablaze. pic.twitter.com/qkG3qSNBTo
— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) May 12, 2024
Belarus media outlet Nexta mentioned, “UAVs attacked an oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd area. Propaganda media reported that after the strike, a heavy fireplace broke out.”
⚡️ UAVs attacked an oil refinery in Russia’s Volgograd area
Propaganda media reported that after the strike, a heavy fireplace broke out. pic.twitter.com/PO0kWg9NV9
— NEXTA (@nexta_tv) May 12, 2024
Bloomberg famous, “The Volgograd refinery is able to processing 14.8 million tons of oil a 12 months and is amongst Russia’s largest. It was beforehand struck by drones in February, when it briefly reduce a few of its operations.”
On Thursday, a Ukrainian drone focused Gazprom PJSC’s Salavat Neftekhim, a top-producing petrochemical and oil-refining facility. On Friday, a drone strike focused a smaller refinery within the Kaluga area.
In March, FT reported that the Biden admin was freaking out that Ukraine’s drone strikes “risked driving up world oil costs.”
One month later, in April, US Protection Secretary Lloyd Austin warned Ukraine that drone and missile assaults shouldn’t be targeted on power infrastructure however as an alternative on army targets due to the chance of sending Brent crude costs over $100/bbl.
“These assaults might have a knock-on impact when it comes to the worldwide power state of affairs,” Austin mentioned, including, “Fairly frankly, I feel Ukraine is best served by going after tactical and operational targets that may straight affect the present struggle.”
In mid-April, Reuters estimated that Russia’s refining capability, which was offline attributable to drone assaults, was round 660,000 barrels per day, in comparison with 907,000 bpd offline on the finish of March. Russia has said it will probably restore all broken items inside two months.
Russia’s Vitality Minister Nikolai Shulginov mentioned all broken refineries could be restarted by the start of June.
The principle purpose of the refinery drone assaults by Ukraine is to crush Moscow’s funding of the conflict by curbing crude product (reminiscent of diesel) exports.
Days in the past, International Affairs journal author Sam Winter-Levy penned a be aware titled “Why Ukraine Ought to Hold Hanging Russian Oil Refineries,” explaining that “with much less home refining capability, Russia will be pressured to export extra of its crude oil, not much less, pushing world costs down slightly than up.”
If Biden’s international coverage is to maintain Brent costs beneath $90/bbl earlier than the November presidential elections, and if Levy’s evaluation is right, then this might solely imply extra drone assaults. Nonetheless, this dangers additional escalating the battle as no peace deal is in sight and the world marches nearer to World Struggle III.
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