UAW strike could upend GM, Ford financial strategies

By Joseph White

DETROIT (Reuters) – Normal Motors (NYSE:) and Ford (NYSE:) have laid out formidable plans to spend billions growing new electrical automobiles whereas returning capital to traders, all funded by sturdy earnings from combustion vehicles and SUVs.

The mounting prices of the United Auto Employees strikes, and the eventual wealthy contract settlements, are placing these plans in danger, analysts stated.

“Discount in capital spending, delayed EV targets, larger sharing of prices, and different adjustments to the company ‘portfolio’ may very well be on the horizon,” Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas advised purchasers in an Oct. 12 be aware.

GM will report third-quarter outcomes Oct. 24, with Ford following on Oct. 26. GM has already telegraphed a $200 million hit to 3rd quarter earnings from strike-related prices.

The strikes have costing GM and Ford greater than $500 million, JP Morgan analyst Ryan Brinkman estimated in a be aware Monday. Ford is now shedding $44 million a day, whereas GM is shedding $21 million a day, Brinkman estimated.

Ford was hit laborious Oct. 11 when UAW President Shawn Fain ordered a walkout from Ford’s Kentucky Truck meeting plant, its most worthwhile single operation globally. Kentucky Truck generates $25 billion in income per yr – or $48,000 per minute, as Fain put it in a video deal with Friday.

After a senior Ford government stated the automaker had reached the restrict of what it may spend on a brand new union contract, Fain replied: “Go get the massive checkbook. The one Ford makes use of when it desires to spend thousands and thousands on firm executives or Wall Road giveaways.”

Ford spent $3.8 billion on dividends by the primary half of this yr, in keeping with its most up-to-date monetary report. The corporate advised traders in Might it deliberate to distribute 40% to 50% of free money circulate to traders annually by way of dividends and share buybacks.

Fain factors to a 1,500% enhance within the cash spent on share buybacks by the Detroit Three over the previous 4 years to argue the automakers can afford substantial UAW wage will increase.

In August 2022, GM’s board elevated funding for share buybacks to $5 billion from $3.3 billion beforehand. The corporate reported spending $869 million to purchase again shares through the first six months of 2023, and paid out $250 million in inventory dividends throughout that point.

GM and Ford have each already scaled again deliberate investments in EV and battery vegetation.

In July, GM trimmed its deliberate spending this yr on electrical automobiles and battery vegetation to between $11 billion and $12 billion. Beforehand, the corporate had stated it may spend as much as $13 billion this yr on EV and battery plant growth. The corporate additionally raised its cost-cutting goal by subsequent yr by $1 billion.

Ford earlier this month hit the brakes on a deliberate $3.5 billion battery plant in Marshall, Mich. Farley warned extra cuts to Ford’s future product investments may come if there’s a “unhealthy deal” with the UAW.

GM and Ford shares have fallen sharply since July because the standoff with the UAW has intensified. GM shares traded close to a 52-week low on Friday.

Nonetheless, some traders are optimistic that dividends and share buybacks can proceed.

“Not less than within the brief time period, I do not assume we’ve got vital concern across the dividend being suspended or share buybacks being restricted,” stated Tim Piechowski, portfolio supervisor with ACR Alpine Capital Analysis, which owns GM shares.

Investments in electrical automobiles ought to proceed, he added, saying that his greater concern was if the businesses had to attract down money if there’s a full work stoppage.

GM has arrange a brand new, $6 billion credit score line as insurance coverage towards an expanded UAW strike.