Authored by Alastair Crooke via the Ron Paul Institute,
Theodore Postol, Professor of Science, Expertise and Nationwide Safety Coverage at MIT, has provided a forensic evaluation of the movies and proof rising from Iran’s thirteenth April swarm drone and missile ‘demonstration’ assault into Israel: A ‘message’, moderately than an ‘assault’.
The main Israeli each day, Yediot Ahoronot, has estimated the value of making an attempt to down this Iranian flotilla at between $2-3 billion {dollars}. The implications of this single quantity are substantial.
Professor Postol writes:
“This means that the price of defending in opposition to waves of assaults of this sort may be very prone to be unsustainable in opposition to an adequately armed and decided adversary”.
“The movies present a particularly vital reality: All the targets, whether or not drones or not, are shot down by air-to-air missiles”, [fired from mostly U.S. aircraft. Some 154 aircraft reportedly were aloft at the time] seemingly firing AIM-9x Sidewinder air to air missiles. The price of a single Sidewinder air-to-air missile is about $500,000”.
Moreover:
“The truth that a really massive variety of unengaged ballistic missiles may very well be seen glowing as they reenter the ambiance to decrease altitudes [an indication of hyper-speed], signifies that regardless of the results of [Israel’s] David’s Sling and the Arrow missile defenses, they weren’t particularly efficient. Thus, the proof at this level exhibits that basically all or many of the arriving long-range ballistic missiles weren’t intercepted by any of the Israeli air and missile-defense techniques”.
Postel provides, “I’ve analyzed the state of affairs, and have concluded that commercially obtainable optical and computational know-how is greater than able to being tailored to a cruise missile steerage system to provide it very excessive precision homing functionality … it’s my conclusion that the Iranians have already developed precision guided cruise missiles and drones”.
“The implications of this are clear. The price of taking pictures down cruise missiles and drones might be very excessive and would possibly nicely be unsustainable until extraordinarily cheap and efficient anti-air techniques may be applied. Right now, nobody has demonstrated an economical protection system that may intercept ballistic missiles with any reliability”.
Simply to be clear, Postol is saying that neither the U.S. nor Israel has greater than a partial protection to a possible assault of this nature – particularly as Iran has dispersed and buried its ballistic missile silos throughout the complete terrain of Iran beneath the management of autonomous models that are able to persevering with a warfare, even had been central command and communications to be fully misplaced.
This quantities to paradigm change – clearly for Israel, for one. The massive bodily expenditure on air protection ordinance – 2-3 billion {dollars} value – is not going to be repeated willy-nilly by the U.S. Netanyahu is not going to simply persuade the U.S. to interact with Israel in any three way partnership in opposition to Iran, given these unsustainable air-defence prices.
But additionally, as a second vital implication, these Air Protection property are usually not simply costly in greenback phrases, they merely are usually not there: i.e. the shop cabinet is close to empty! And the U.S. lacks the manufacturing capability to switch these not significantly efficient, excessive value platforms speedily.
‘Sure, Ukraine’ … the Center East paradigm interlinks immediately with the Ukraine paradigm the place Russia has succeeded in destroying a lot of the western equipped, air-defence capabilities in Ukraine, giving Russia close to full air dominance over the skies.
Positioning scarce air protection ‘to save lots of Israel’ due to this fact, exposes Ukraine (and slows the U.S. pivot to China, too). And given the latest passage of the funding Invoice for Ukraine in Congress, clearly air defence property are a precedence for sending to Kiev – the place the West appears to be like more and more trapped and rummaging for a means out that doesn’t result in humiliation.
However earlier than leaving the Center East paradigm shift, the implications for Netanyahu are already evident: He should due to this fact focus again to the ‘close to enemy’ – the Palestinian sphere or to Lebanon – to offer Israel with the ‘Nice Victory’ that his authorities craves.
In brief, the ‘value’ for Biden of saving Israel from the Iranian flotilla which had been pre-announced by Iran to be demonstrative and never harmful nor deadly is that the White Home should put-up with the corollary – an assault on Rafah. However this means a distinct type of value – an electoral erosion by exacerbating home tensions arising from the on-going blatant slaughter of Palestinians.
It’s not simply Israel that bears the burden of the Iranian paradigm shift. Take into account the Sunni Arab States which have been working in varied types of collaboration (normalissation) with Israel.
Within the occasion of wider battle embracing Iran, clearly Israel can not defend them – as Professor Postol so clearly exhibits. And might they depend on the U.S.? The U.S. faces competing calls for for its scarce Air Defenses and (for now) Ukraine, and the pivot to China, are larger on the White Home precedence ladder.
In September 2019, the Saudi Abqaiq oil facility was hit by cruise missiles, which Postol notes, “had an efficient accuracy of maybe a number of ft, way more exact than may very well be achieved with GPS steerage (suggesting an optical and computational steerage system, giving a really exact homing functionality)”.
So, after the Iranian lively deterrence paradigm shift, and the next Air Defence depletion paradigm shock, the putative coming western paradigm shift (the Third Paradigm) is equally interlinked with Ukraine.
For the western proxy warfare with Russia centered on Ukraine has made one factor abundantly clear: that is that the West’s off-shoring of its manufacturing base has left it uncompetitive, each in easy commerce phrases, and secondly, in limiting western protection manufacturing capability. It finds (post-13 April) that it doesn’t have the Air Defence property to go spherical: ‘saving Israel’; ‘saving Ukraine’ and making ready for warfare with China.
The western maximalization of shareholder returns mannequin has not tailored readily to the logistical wants of the current ‘restricted’ Ukraine/Russia warfare, not to mention offered positioning for future wars – with Iran and China.
Put plainly, this ‘late stage’ international imperialism has been residing a ‘false daybreak’: With the financial system shifting from manufacturing ‘issues’, to the extra profitable sphere of imagining new monetary merchandise (akin to derivatives) that make some huge cash shortly, however which destabilize society (by growing disparities of wealth); and which finally, de-stabilise the worldwide system itself (because the World Majority states recoil from the lack of sovereignty and autonomy that financialism entails).
Extra broadly, the worldwide system is near huge structural change. Because the Financial Times warns,
“the U.S. and EU can not embrace national-security “toddler business” arguments, seize key worth chains to slim inequality, and break the fiscal and financial ‘guidelines’, whereas additionally utilizing the IMF and World Financial institution – and the economics career– to evangelise free-market greatest follow to EM ex-China. And China can’t anticipate others to not copy what it does”. Because the FT concludes, “the shift to a brand new financial paradigm has begun. The place it should finish may be very a lot up for grabs.”
‘Up for grabs’: Effectively, for the FT the reply could also be opaque, however for the International Majority is obvious sufficient – “We’re going again to fundamentals”: A less complicated, largely nationwide financial system, protected against overseas competitors by customs obstacles. Name it ‘old- original’ (the ideas have been written about for the final 200 years); but it’s nothing excessive. The notions merely replicate the flip aspect of the coin to Adam Smith’s doctrines, and that which Friedrich Record superior in his critique of the laissez-faire individualist method of the Anglo-People.
‘European leaders’, nevertheless, see the financial paradigm resolution otherwise:
“The ECB’s Panetta gave a speech echoing Mario Draghi’s name for “radical change”: He said for the EU to thrive it wants a de facto national-security targeted POLITICAL financial system centered round: decreasing dependence on overseas demand; enhancing power safety (inexperienced protectionism); advancing manufacturing of know-how (industrial coverage); rethinking participation in international worth chains (tariffs/subsidies); governing migration flows (so larger labour prices); enhancing exterior safety (large funds for defence); and joint investments in European public items (through Eurobonds … to be purchased by ECB QE)”.
The ‘false daybreak’ growth in U.S. monetary providers started as its industrial base was rotting away, and as new wars started to be promoted. It’s simple to see that the U.S. financial system now wants structural change. Its actual financial system has change into globally uncompetitive – therefore Yellen’s name on China to curb its over-capacity which is hurting western economies.
However is it reasonable to suppose that Europe can handle a relaunch as a ‘protection and nationwide security-led political financial system’, as Draghi and Panetta advocate as a continuation of warfare with Russia? Launched from close to floor zero?
Is it reasonable to suppose that the American Safety State will enable Europe to do that, having intentionally diminished Europe to financial vassalage by inflicting it to desert its prior enterprise mannequin based mostly on low cost power and promoting high-end engineering merchandise to China?
This Draghi-ECB plan represents an enormous structural change; one that might take a decade or two to implement and would value trillions. It could happen too, at a time of inevitable European fiscal austerity. Is there proof that bizarre Europeans help such radical structural change?
Why then is Europe pursuing a path that embraces large dangers – one which doubtlessly may drag Europe right into a whirlpool of tensions ending in warfare with Russia?
For one essential purpose: The EU management held hubristic ambitions to show the EU right into a ‘geo-political’ empire – a world actor with the heft to hitch the U.S. at High Desk. To this finish, the EU unreservedly provided itself because the auxiliary of the White Home Workforce for his or her Ukraine venture, and acquiesced to the entry worth of emptying their armories and sanctioning a budget power on which the financial system depended.
It was this resolution that has been de-industrializing Europe; that has made what stays of an actual financial system uncompetitive and triggered the inflation that’s undermining residing requirements. Falling into line with Washington’s failing Ukraine venture has launched a cascade of disastrous choices by the EU.
Have been this coverage line to vary, Europe may revert to what it was: a buying and selling affiliation shaped of various sovereign states. Many Europeans would accept that: Putting the give attention to making Europe aggressive once more; making Europe a diplomatic actor, moderately than as a navy actor.
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