Spot ETH ETFs have 50% chance of May approval: Bitwise, Grayscale, Galaxy execs

Executives at three asset administration corporations agreed throughout a Feb. 13 panel dialogue that pending spot Ethereum ETFs have a 50% likelihood of approval this Could.

Matt Hougan, International Head of Analysis for Bitwise Asset Administration, mentioned

“I believe it’s possible we are going to get an ETH ETF fairly quickly. I believe there’s a 50/50 likelihood by Could … “

Steve Kurz, International Head of Galaxy Asset Administration, agreed that there’s a 50% likelihood of a spot Ethereum ETF approval by Could. He additionally predicted a 75% likelihood by the top of 2024.

Dave LaValle, International Head of ETFs at Grayscale, additionally positioned approval odds at 50% by Could. On whether or not Grayscale would sue the U.S. Securities and Alternate Fee (SEC) within the occasion of a rejection, LaValle mentioned: “We’ll have to attend and see the way it performs out. Now we have to take a look at the info.”

Grayscale beforehand compelled the SEC to evaluation its spot Bitcoin ETF utility via authorized motion. The SEC cited the case as one cause for approving spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.

The 50% odds expressed by every govt broadly align with different predictions. JP Morgan member Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou believes there’s a 50% likelihood {that a} spot Ethereum ETF might be permitted in Could. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart — a colleague of Eric Balchunas, who hosted right now’s panel dialogue — has predicted 60% approval odds. Lastly, a Polymarket prediction market means that approval odds by the top of Could are 48%.

Eight corporations intend to supply an ETH ETF

Of the three corporations listed above, solely Grayscale and Galaxy (in partnership with Invesco) have a spot Ethereum ETF utility pending with regulators.

Different spot Ethereum ETF candidates embody VanEck, ARK and 21Shares, Hashdex, BlackRock (iShares), Constancy, and Franklin Templeton.

The SEC should approve or reject VanEck’s utility by Could 23. Although it won’t essentially approve the fund, it’s going to doubtless determine on different comparable functions on the identical time.

No spot Ethereum ETF exists on the US market at current. Bitwise at the moment gives two Ethereum futures ETFs, which don’t present publicity to the spot Ethereum market. Grayscale gives an Ethereum Belief and an Ethereum Futures Belief, each of which it intends to transform to ETFs. Many different asset managers additionally provide Ethereum futures ETFs.