Gold Expert Talks 2024 Outlook, Plus Forecast for Silver, Platinum and Palladium

Key gold demand traits in 2023

2023 was a robust yr for gold regardless of the headwind of excessive rates of interest. Not solely did the metallic hit a brand new file degree late within the interval, but it surely additionally outperformed most asset courses aside from US equities.

So what has been driving demand for gold over the previous yr? Reade defined many components have been at play, however famous that jewellery shopping for has remained resilient regardless of being a market section that’s delicate to rising costs.

“The gold value was US$250 in 1999 and 2001, and is US$2,000 now. The gold value has elevated during the last six or seven years, and but jewellery demand is fairly regular. I believe that reveals a really sturdy underlying curiosity in gold for jewellery, and that curiosity comes from rising markets, principally India and China,” he mentioned.

Reade believes continued demand for gold jewellery signifies a broader tolerance inside the marketplace for US$2,000 gold.

Additionally contributing to sturdy gold demand in 2023 was the know-how sector, which consumed 300 metric tons (MT) of the yellow metallic following years of strain following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Nonetheless, gold bar and coin funding nonetheless made up the most important demand class. Reade identified that whereas there have been 244 MT of outflows from exchange-traded funds (ETF) in 2023, marking a 3rd consecutive annual decline, bar and coin demand remained sturdy, with 1,200 MT being traded, a 3 % decline year-on-year.

This slight decline in bar and coin demand may be attributed to decreased shopping for in western markets, notably Germany, mentioned Reade. “Most likely probably the most worrying issue within the gold market in the intervening time for me is the collapse in demand we’ve seen in Germany — a 70 % fall in what was the most important western marketplace for bars and cash,” he mentioned, noting that the World Gold Council continues to carefully monitor this example.

Reade mentioned the precipitous drop in German demand was resulting from components similar to excessive rates of interest and elevated costs in client vitality markets, with these pressures inflicting buyers to maneuver to the sidelines and rein in spending.

Whereas German gold funding declined final yr, demand for the yellow metallic was taken up elsewhere. “In distinction, we’ve seen a giant bounce-back in gold demand in China because the financial system opened up, and we’re seeing into 2024 super curiosity from Chinese language buyers to purchase gold bars and gold cash,” mentioned Reade.

Central banks nonetheless sturdy gold consumers

Reade additionally highlighted central financial institution gold shopping for, calling it the “greatest story” on the demand aspect.

Following selloffs of gold for the 22 years main as much as the worldwide monetary disaster in 2008, rising market central banks started to buy 500 MT of gold per yr between 2010 and 2021. This represented 10 % of a 5,000 MT per yr market. These numbers doubled after the pandemic, with international locations like China, Poland and Singapore main the best way.

In line with Reade, one issue that’s modified significantly with regards to central financial institution gold shopping for is the quantity going unreported; this implies there may be extra shopping for happening than the central banks say there may be.

Taking a look at why central banks are stocking up on gold, Reade mentioned inflation is one motive. He additionally famous that rising market central banks see attainable threats to the US greenback’s standing because the world’s reserve foreign money.

“There is a recognition amongst the rising market central banks, who’ve trillions of {dollars} of overseas trade reserves, that sooner or later, different economies might be huge and vital too, and possibly will turn out to be opponents for the US reserve foreign money standing,” he mentioned, mentioning China and India as prospects.

Reade continued, “Their currencies aren’t prepared but to be reserve currencies. But demand for gold is pushed very a lot by the efficiency of these and different rising market economies.”

The ultimate level he thinks is pushing central financial institution gold shopping for is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. “The sanctioning of (Russia’s) reserves. Gold is an asset that central banks can maintain in their very own nation that’s proof against western sanctions, and that’s turning into much more engaging,” Reade instructed the viewers at PDAC.

Finest- and worst-case gold value eventualities

Reade famous that there are numerous macroeconomic and geopolitical components that affect the gold market. Nonetheless, within the brief time period, what occurs within the monetary markets will decide the metallic’s value.

He famous that again in December, a mushy touchdown was the overall consensus amongst consultants; some have been calling for a recession, whereas only a few have been forecasting a “no touchdown” consequence.

“Issues have shifted considerably now. I might say extra persons are interested by a no touchdown financial system than there have been earlier than. Not very many individuals are speaking a couple of recession, such is the power of the US financial system,” Reade mentioned.

Taking a look at how every situation would impression gold, he steered {that a} exhausting touchdown would have the perfect outcomes, whereas a mushy touchdown gold would nonetheless see gold do nicely, however would additionally see equities to proceed to roll forward.

A no touchdown situation could be the least favorable for the yellow metallic.

“In different phrases, development within the states would not decelerate sufficient to set off (rate of interest cuts), and probably inflation stays excessive sufficient that we might even see some hikes. That’s the worst of all eventualities for 2024 for gold. If we do not get fee cuts, gold in all probability will battle to exceed and even match what we noticed in 2023,” he mentioned.

Reade additionally spoke about how the US election might have an effect on demand for gold within the coming months as two divisive candidates face off for the presidency. Their vastly differing overseas insurance policies might create volatility for the markets and the US greenback, and buyers might hunt down gold as a safe-haven asset.

“A victory by the Republican social gathering might result in dangers of a extra isolationist US financial system,” mentioned Reade. “As it’s, the greenback is exhibiting indicators of individuals transferring slowly away from it and in search of different belongings to commerce with or have in central financial institution reserves — this might speed up if among the insurance policies being spoken about by one of many candidates have been to return true.”

Silver, platinum and palladium outlook

Whereas indicators are pointing to gold market power in 2024, the outlook is not wanting as optimistic for silver, platinum and palladium. Of the three, Reade sees silver as having the best potential.

In 2022, silver noticed sturdy demand from India, which was importing file quantities of the white metallic. However that demand failed to hold over into 2023, and silver had a considerably disappointing yr. Throughout a latest journey to Singapore, Reade noticed one other reversal within the works, with Indian demand as soon as once more on the rise.

“If that’s the case, look ahead to … inventories heading decrease once more for silver and for issues to get attention-grabbing,” he mentioned.

Nonetheless, Reade was additionally pragmatic, noting that Indian demand alone will not create a constructive shift in silver.

“I personally assume we’re going to wish a little bit of restoration in China. Its industrial demand for silver is so vital that if the financial system there may be lagging, that may have a tendency to not make this occur,” he defined. Pointing to the lagging gold-silver ratio, Reade added that there’s potential for silver buyers to do very nicely.

Relating to platinum and palladium, Reade doesn’t see a constructive narrative. Each metals are sitting in surplus positions, with their major use being as catalysts for automobiles with inside combustion engines. With sturdy manufacturing persevering with out of South Africa and with appreciable quantities of the metals contained in automobiles that can ultimately be recycled, the potential for greater pricing within the brief time period is not good.

With elections approaching in South Africa on the finish of Could, there aren’t more likely to be cuts in platinum output till later within the yr, if in any respect, however Reade nonetheless sees extra upside for platinum than palladium.

“Platinum is a metallic that traded at a premium to gold for nearly all my life, for the final 70 years. So I might say I’ve extra religion within the long-term prospects,” he mentioned.