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With the 2024 U.S. presidential elections heating up subsequent week within the type of the primary debate, Goldman Sachs’ portfolio technique analysis workforce took a have a look at American firms which have the largest publicity to home and worldwide gross sales.
Present predictions name for a Republican victory, which might most certainly see the return of former President Donald Trump. Goldman Sachs believes any laws adjustments would most likely have an effect on the U.S. greenback, which in flip might affect the efficiency of firms.
“The primary 2024 presidential debate shall be held subsequent Thursday, June twenty seventh. Prediction markets assign a 42% chance to a Republican sweep. The coverage outcomes from the election will doubtless affect the USD and the relative efficiency of equities with home vs. overseas gross sales,” Goldman Sachs analyst David Kostin mentioned in a analysis word on Friday.
“We analyzed firm stage geographic gross sales knowledge … The 22% weight of Semis in our Worldwide Gross sales basket (GSTHINTL) has contributed to the 5 pp YTD outperformance relative to our Home Gross sales basket (GSTHAINT). Geopolitical rigidity and tariffs are potential headwinds to our Worldwide Gross sales basket, which underperformed following the 2016 election and throughout the 2018 commerce warfare,” Kostin added.
Goldman mentioned the GSTHINTL and the GSTHAINT baskets every consisted of fifty S&P 500 (SP500) shares with the very best income publicity to non-U.S. gross sales and gross sales within the U.S., respectively.
“The median GSTHAINT inventory derives 0% of its revenues from overseas vs. 70% for the median GSTHINTL inventory. Worldwide gross sales account for 28% of revenues for the median S&P 500 firm,” Goldman’s Kostin mentioned.
See beneath for a breakdown of the constituents of Goldman’s home gross sales basket (GSTHAINT) as of June 20:
Communication Companies
- Verizon (VZ): annual gross sales – $134B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- T-Cell US (TMUS): annual gross sales – $79B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Constitution Communications (CHTR): annual gross sales – $55B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Fox (FOX)(FOXA): annual gross sales – $15B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- AT&T (T): annual gross sales – $122B; non-U.S. gross sales – 4%.
Shopper Discretionary
- Lowe’s Corporations (LOW): annual gross sales – $86B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- D.R. Horton (DHI): annual gross sales – $35B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Lennar (LEN): annual gross sales – $34B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- CarMax (KMX): annual gross sales – $27B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Ross Shops (ROST): annual gross sales – $20B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
Shopper Staples
- Kroger (KR): annual gross sales – $150B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Goal (TGT): annual gross sales – $107B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Greenback Common (DG): annual gross sales – $39B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
Power
- Marathon Petroleum (MPC): annual gross sales – $148B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- ONEOK (OKE): annual gross sales – $18B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
Financials
- Wells Fargo (WFC): annual gross sales – $83B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Allstate (ALL): annual gross sales – $57B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Capital One Monetary (COF): annual gross sales – $37B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- PNC Monetary Companies (PNC): annual gross sales – $32B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Charles Schwab (SCHW): annual gross sales – $26B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Truist Monetary (TFC): annual gross sales – $23B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
Well being Care
- CVS Well being (CVS): annual gross sales – $358B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Elevance Well being (ELV): annual gross sales – $171B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Centene (CNC): annual gross sales – $154B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Humana (HUM): annual gross sales – $106B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Molina Healthcare (MOH): annual gross sales – $34B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Quest Diagnostics (DGX): annual gross sales – $9B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
Industrials
- Southwest Airways (LUV): annual gross sales – $26B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Union Pacific (UNP): annual gross sales – $24B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Builders FirstSource (BLDR): annual gross sales – $17B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- Republic Companies (RSG): annual gross sales – $15B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
Data Expertise
- Tyler Applied sciences (TYL): annual gross sales – $2B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
- First Photo voltaic (FSLR): annual gross sales – $3B; non-U.S. gross sales – 4%.
- Intuit (INTU): annual gross sales – $14B; non-U.S. gross sales – 8%.
- CDW (CDW): annual gross sales – $21B; non-U.S. gross sales – 12%.
- Roper Applied sciences (ROP): annual gross sales – $6B; non-U.S. gross sales – 14%.
- Arista Networks (ANET): annual gross sales – $6B; non-U.S. gross sales – 23%.
- Skyworks Options (SWKS): annual gross sales – $5B; non-U.S. gross sales – 24%.
- Cognizant (CTSH): annual gross sales – $19B; non-U.S. gross sales – 26%.
- Truthful Isaac (FICO): annual gross sales – $2B; non-U.S. gross sales – 27%.
- Tremendous Micro Pc (SMCI): annual gross sales – $7B; non-U.S. gross sales – 32%.
- VeriSign (VRSN): annual gross sales – $1B; non-U.S. gross sales – 33%.
- Gartner (IT): annual gross sales – $6B; non-U.S. gross sales – 34%.
- Motorola Options (MSI): annual gross sales – $10B; non-U.S. gross sales – 34%.
- Palo Alto Networks (PANW): annual gross sales – $7B; non-U.S. gross sales – 36%.
- Enphase Power (ENPH): annual gross sales – $2B; non-U.S. gross sales – 36%.
- Gen Digital (GEN): annual gross sales – $3B; non-U.S. gross sales – 37%.
Supplies
- Nucor (NUE): annual gross sales – $35B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
Actual Property
- Crown Citadel (CCI): annual gross sales – $7B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.
Utilities
- Duke Power (DUK): annual gross sales – $29B; non-U.S. gross sales – 0%.